The Newsroom News - Health reform Urban Institute Predicts Costs of Health Care Bill Failure
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Urban Institute Predicts Costs of Health Care Bill Failure
Written by David Norman
Wednesday, 07 October 2009 17:56
As debate over health reform rages on, members of the Urban Institute cast a looming cloud over the climate of health care in the future if federal reform measures fail. Through their Health Insurance Stimulation Model, they augur a continued downturn in the industry over the next decade even in their best case scenario.
The full report can be accessed here. It contains predictions for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the many issues that health care reform seeks to improve. It contains results following three models: a best case scenario, an intermediate case and a worst case. The general figures, in all cases, look grim. From state to state and from best to worst, the Urban Institute predicts that the number of uninsured Americans will increase, the amount of people with employer-sponsored insurance and their coverage will decrease, and public spending as well as individual and family out-of-pocket costs will increase. What remains to be seen is by how much.
According to the Urban Institute, under the worst case model, the amount of Americans without health insurance would increase by more than 10% in every state and by more than 30% in 29 states, raising the predicted uninsured population to 65.7 million by 2019. Half of the states would see the amount of workers covered by employer-sponsored insurance programs drop by more than 10%, and each state would see individual and family out-of-pocket costs increase by at least 35%. Likewise, every state would see Medicaid spending increase by at least 75%, half seeing it soar by more than 100%.
Even the best case scenario predicts a downward slope. Under this model, the uninsured population would still increase by at least 10% in every state, and the amount of uncompensated care - usually compiling when the uninsured seek out hospital emergency rooms for primary care - would increase by at least 50% in 48 states. In 13 states, Medicaid spending would increase by more than 65% and 12 states would see out-of-pocket costs grow by at least 50%.
The report shows that in each area represented, should reform fail to pass, health care will become less and less patient-friendly and more inaccessible and costly, whether following an unobstructed downward curve or as a sharp plummet. This would likely also result in many negative outcomes not accounted for, from population decreases in the hardest-hit areas to increased prescription drug costs to a shrinking middle class.
Although initial costs of health care reform will be great, they will ultimately turn around or sharply cut the growth of costs and of the amount of uninsured Americans that would be seen without intervention. Take a look at the report to find out how your state would be affected.
Last Updated on Wednesday, 07 October 2009 18:25